Public Policy and Administration Review

Demand Forecasting and the Determination of Employee Requirements in Nigerian Public Organisations
Wurim, Ben Pam
Public Policy and Administration Review, 1(1), pp. 01-15.

Abstract
The right quality and quantity of human capital (employed) is a measure of an organisation’s strength and success. Where this optimum staff mix is not maintained, imbalances in surpluses or deficits of employees may arise leading to unmanageable increases in personnel costs, inefficiency, absenteeism, turnover and roductivity problems. The determination of this optimum staff mix is subject to the application of certain methods. The principal objective of this paper is to assess the potency of demand forecasting in the determination of employee requirements. A hypothesis in line with this objective is drawn and tested based on the data generated through a questionnaire. The survey investigation method was used in collecting the primary data for the study. The sample consisted of 349 top, middle and low levels management staff of five public sector organisations in Nigeria. The result shows that demand forecasting is not a potent tool in the estimation of employee requirements in Nigerian public organisations. Based on the aforementioned, the paper concluded that although widely varying approaches to forecasting the employees needs of an organization exist, demand forecasting might not predict with certainty the exact employee needs of an organization. The paper recommends that human capital planners should adopt a strategy of combining both qualitative and subjective methods in forecasting the employee needs of an organization; Chief executive officers of organisations should make it mandatory for human capital planners to employ scientific methods in forecasting; and the adoption of a combination of the technical skills of experts from various fields in the forecasting efforts

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